The recent general election in Israel has pointed toward a potential turning point in the nation's political landscape, with exit polls suggesting that long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could face removal from power. According to projections by Israel’s Channel 12, a centrist coalition led by Gadi Eisenkot is projected to secure 52 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc trails closely behind with 50 seats, while Arab-led parties have captured 18 seats. While these are preliminary figures and final tallying alongside coalition formation could take weeks, the trajectory has sparked intense discussions regarding the future of Israeli governance and its foreign policy.
Despite the potential exit of Netanyahu—a development that would likely be welcomed by Western allies seeking a shift in Israeli leadership style—analysts caution that Palestinian aspirations are unlikely to see any genuine relief. The primary reason lies in Gadi Eisenkot's own hawkish military background. Long before the devastating conflict erupted in Gaza, the Israeli military formulated the notorious 'Dahiya Doctrine,' an aggressive strategic framework designed to inflict massive, disproportionate destruction on civilian infrastructure to deter future hostilities. This doctrine was famously implemented during the 2006 Lebanon war against Hezbollah. Notably, the conceptual mastermind behind this brutal military strategy was none other than Gadi Eisenkot, who served as the head of the military’s operations directorate at the time.
Eisenkot's past military doctrine raises serious questions about his prospective approach toward the Palestinian territories. While Washington and international diplomats might breathe a sigh of relief to see Netanyahu go, hoping for a more predictable partnership, Eisenkot's 'change coalition' holds views on Gaza, the West Bank, and the two-state solution that diverge very little from the entrenched security orthodoxy of the Israeli establishment. A leader molded by military aggression and hardline defense policies is hardly expected to champion Palestinian statehood or dismantle the systems of occupation that have persisted for decades.
As the coalition negotiations unfold in the coming days and weeks, the path to premiership remains fraught with uncertainty. Even if Eisenkot successfully navigates the political math to form a government, bringing an end to the protracted Netanyahu era, the fundamental reality on the ground for Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank will likely remain unchanged. True emancipation and peace for Palestinians depend far less on which Israeli politician holds the office, and far more on a foundational shift away from the systemic policies of conflict and expansionism that continue to dominate the region.
